Although based in the historic Cape Winelands, Pieter Geldenhuys keeps a keen eye on the future. An engineer by training, today he leads the Institute for Technology Strategy and Innovation, working with corporate leaders around the globe to turn an analytical gaze on innovation, strategy and the potential that future technologies have for business and for geopolitical stability. In a discussion that ranged from lunar mining and protein mapping to artificial intelligence, Pieter offered Stellenbosch Visio’s RICHARD HOLMES a glimpse into his brave new world.
How did the Institute for Technology Strategy and Innovation come about?
I’m an electronic engineer by training. When I did my MBA I focused on technology strategy, and since then on how organisations can unlock technological opportunities in a rapidly changing world.
The institute was born from the fact that many business schools didn’t have off-the- shelf subjects that allowed organisations to embrace this change effectively.
But we’re not the kind of institute that opens courses to just anyone. We tailor our services to specific organisations and we act as an innovation consultancy, but in disguise. We help organisations recognise the innovative opportunities that their own staff can unlock. Our goal is to empower organisations by helping their employees drive the innovation process from within.
Why is internal motivation so important?
When people believe the ideas are theirs, they become passionate about making them happen. We provide organisations with sufficient insight into what their opportunities are, but we never complete the picture.
We draw about 80% of the circle and leave the last part for them to finish. This approach gives them a sense of ownership over the ideas. We help them to become more entrepreneurial and innovative, and most of the subjects we do you wouldn’t find in a traditional business school.
And that includes a focus on the future?
In both my academic work and my keynote presentations I focus on identifying the mega- trends shaping our world. As a futurist, this is the journey. How do you build the capacity to see the implications of change and understand the deeper patterns beneath the surface of daily news? Most headlines we see are just surface ripples of deeper ocean currents. Part of my work is identifying these currents, finding out when they shift direction and when they collide. Once we understand that, we can project some very interesting future scenarios.
What sort of timelines are we talking about here?
Research has been done on the fundamental failure of innovative ideas, and the number one reason is timing … There’s a complex dance between new technologies and markets. Take the metaverse, for example. For years, people have been talking about it, but the concept didn’t take off as expected because the key application to unlocking market uptake has not yet been tested.
Human systems are complex systems, which means that when an agent affects a change during the launch of a new technology, the market landscape reacts and changes as well. This, in turn, forces the agent to change, which means the technology landscape becomes quite dynamic once a new technology emerges. The landscape only becomes static once dominant attractors emerge, as we have seen in the smartphone and smart speaker markets.
AI IS AN UNBELIEVABLY POWERFUL TOOL FOR ENHANCING BUSINESS PRODUCTIVITY, BUT IT WILL TAKE LONGER THAN ANTICIPATED TO AFFECT ALL FUNCTIONS WITHIN A COMPANY.
Does the same apply to the current clamour around AI?
Yes and no. AI is an unbelievably powerful tool for enhancing business productivity, but it will take longer than anticipated to affect all functions within a company. When we talk about AI, it is important to view it through the perspective of the AI value chain. As each new AI model moves through the value chain, new opportunities will emerge in each stage of market development.
We will also become more realistic about the capabilities of the current foundation models, as we realise that AI can’t extrapolate; it can only interpolate. It is for this reason that in the current LLM (large language model) debate, data are driving increased functionality, not new models.
What are some of the more ‘out there’ technologies you are keeping an eye on?
Well, why do you think five countries went to the moon in the same year? Helium-3. Nuclear fusion is the key to unlocking unbelievable economic growth throughout the world and Helium-3 is key to unlocking nuclear fusion.
There’s a huge amount of Helium-3 on the moon. The Chinese mapped these deposits back in 2014 and even brought back material from the moon recently. As space exploration progresses, with advances like Elon Musk’s Starship, space mining will be a very important part of this picture.
What about down here on earth?
We will see really interesting manifestations of current technology that will shape our future as well. Did you know that the first AI-assisted assassination happened about two and a half years ago, in Iran? It shows how existing tech- nologies can be taken in unexpected directions.
But let me give you one more interesting prediction. In the future, we believe that retailers will start using 5G ‘chicken sniffers’. It relates to how RFID technology works today. Now, imagine this applied to food packaging: a chip embedded in a package of meat that could tell you whether the meat is still fresh or not. This would reduce food waste, as sell-by dates could become more flexible.
This kind of technology is under develop- ment right now, and will only appear by around 2030. We have dozens of these examples, where we track the latest technologies and give organisations the capabilities to implement them.
How do you work with organisations to leverage these insights into future technologies?
My argument is that we can’t control the major megatrends, like geopolitics and demographic changes. As individuals or companies, our impact on these areas is limited. But we can have a huge impact by embracing technology to improve the world.
So my focus is on how organisations can harness technology in a changing world. I also work on projects that enhance the livelihoods of people in Africa, particularly in the financial and telecommunications sectors. We’re exploring which technologies we can embrace to make Africa a better, more affluent place.
